2025 looking stronger than 2024 for Texas housing manufacturers 

COLLEGE STATION – The beginning of the year is generally a slow time for housing manufacturers, but the January 2025 Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) shows they’re expecting a solid year overall.  

The seasonal downturn was evident in the survey, which recorded the first drop in the number of floors built per day since August 2024, but the start of the spring selling season may have begun with new orders turning positive after two preceding months of declines. 

Expectations for company outlooks and general business activity moderated some from last month, but sentiments for both remain quite positive for increased activity six months out.  

The outlook for future capital expenditures, floors produced and sold per day, average employee workweek, and number of employees all reflected this same optimism. 

Even with this continued optimism, the survey did report an increase in both expected and current regulatory burden. 

 “The HUD Code updates published only last fall are scheduled to take effect on March 17, 2025,” said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA). “While manufacturers are excited about these updates, particularly the allowance to build multi-dwelling unit homes, code transitions are challenging to navigate as manufacturers balance existing order delivery with new plans that must undergo design and review. They also need to secure all the new necessary building components before production can even begin.” 

Although currently flat, the survey reported a slight increase in expected labor costs six months out. This could be a result of less slack appearing in the U.S. labor market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics just reported that the January 2025 unemployment rate declined to a comparatively tight 4 percent.  

Expectations for prices paid for raw materials and prices received for finished homes showed little change over last month’s survey and remain elevated. Questions remain as to whether new tariffs being floated will turn out to be inflationary. At this point, it’s too soon to tell what the impact of tariffs will be. 

“The implementation of additional tariffs on Canadian lumber could be a concern,” said Harold Hunt, PhD., research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University (TRERC). “Canadian softwood lumber imports are currently charged a 14.5 percent duty, which became effective August 2024. On February 1, President Trump announced an additional 25 percent tariff on Canadian goods, including softwood lumber. The increase would raise the total effective tariff on lumber to nearly 40 percent. However, implementation of the additional tariff has been delayed for 30 days as of February 4.” 

The TMHS monthly sentiment survey gauges current conditions and expectations surrounding Texas’ manufactured housing industry. All TMHA members with manufacturing facilities in the state are invited to participate, and the survey panel represents 94 percent of HUD-code homes produced in Texas. The survey was created by TRERC, who administers it and calculates the responses.