2025 Texas Real Estate Forecast: Positive outlook despite global concerns 

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – A new forecast from the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) at Texas A&M University projects an overall positive year for the state’s real estate markets, but ongoing global conditions and the transition to a new administration in Washington, D.C., add a note of uncertainty. 

“Potential long-term shifts in federal tax, spending, and regulations could significantly impact macroeconomic conditions,” said TRERC Research Director Daniel Oney, Ph.D. “This could improve business investment, workforce participation, and demographic trends.” 

“What happens in Ukraine, the Middle East, and in trade policies, such as tariffs on China and Mexico, can make a big difference in real estate outcomes.” 

The forecast notes that business and household optimism from regulatory certainty and structural reforms make a recession less likely in 2025. Increased investment and spending may drive growth but could also contribute to inflation. 

Forecast Projections by Real Estate Sector 

Single-Family Housing 

Single-family permits and sales will be higher in 2025, and many markets should see modest increases in median prices. Single-family rental rates will vary across the state with some strength in some markets.   

Multifamily Housing 

Apartment deliveries will be much lower as the pipeline continues to shrink. Recent overbuilding will hold rents flat for most of the year, but the most overbuilt markets will see much lower effective rents.  

Office 

New office space deliveries will slow down. Absorption and rent growth will be strong at the top end of the market. Many Class B and C buildings will struggle to retain and attract tenants. 

Industrial 

The industrial pipeline continues to tighten and much of the new inventory will be absorbed. Big box projects will be less attractive than smaller, infill buildings. Rent growth will remain positive and economic growth will gradually improve supply and demand balance through 2025. 

Retail 

Statewide inventory will be up, but less than in 2024. Under the assumed economic conditions, developers will thread the needle, and supply and demand balance will prevail. Rent growth will be positive, on average, across the state. 

Rural Land 

• With interest rates widely expected to be lower in 2025 than in 2024 and market sentiment on the rise, rural land sales volumes will be slightly higher in 2025.  

• Price expectations will moderate, with owners lowering appreciation expectations at least through the first half of the year. 

To read the full report, visit TRERC’s website. 

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ABOUT TRERC  
The Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University (TRERC) is the nation’s largest publicly funded organization devoted to real estate research. Created by the state legislature in 1971 to meet the data and knowledge sharing needs of many audiences, including the real estate industry, instructors, researchers, legislators, and the public, the Center creates public content, including digital and print documents, publications, and multiple format videos that are available at the Center’s website. Subscribe to TRERC news releases and other publications here.