Texas Rural Land Markets | First Quarter 2025

About this Report

This report contains an analysis of Texas land markets. The reported sales consist of a sample of verified transactions through first quarter 2025. The report does not include all Texas land sales. The statistics reflect a mixture of land uses and conditions and represent the market for large rural land tracts (the minimum land size is region-specific due to the varied tract sizes sold in each region). Statistics in the report reflect general trends without regard to land use or type. The analysis reports quarterly, annualized changes using moving averages as they generally minimize noisy, short-term fluctuations and provide a long-term indication of market trends. Reported values are based on median prices because they are the most stable representation of market conditions.

Users should regard the statistics presented in this report as indicators of past market conditions, providing a general guide to land market trends. The reported data does not represent prices or values of any particular farm or ranch. Users should not consider the reported statistics as a substitute for an appraisal or market study of current local sales regarding the value of any farm or ranch.

For historical data on Texas’ Land Market Areas, go to trerc.tamu.edu/rural-land. This page also includes a link to Texas Rural Land Value Trends, a regional analysis of Texas markets by the Texas Chapter of the American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers.

Texas

Through first quarter 2025, Texas’ statewide price per acre pushed beyond the $4,700’s range of 2024, reaching $4,827, which is 2.68 percent higher than a year ago and 1.07 percent above the year-end price. Total acres sold rose 6.65 percent, and total dollar volume rose 9.51 percent year-over-year (YoY). However, the number of sales was down 10.01 percent YoY. Overall, market activity is still well below 2019 levels and, while total acres sold statewide rose YoY, they were down in four of the seven Regions.

The statewide five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) held in the upper 9 percent range, at 9.95 percent through 1Q2025. This is still well above the long-term rate, but down from 10.7 percent a year ago. The rate of price growth was just enough to keep up with the price index, as the real (deflated) price per acre was equal to the year-ago level of $654 per acre in 1966 dollars.

As previously noted, annualized statewide sales volume slipped about 10 percent to 3,259 through 1Q2025. Quarter-only sales volume dropped 16.58 percent, but it was higher than the volume of the last two quarters. Region 4 had the biggest decline in this category, but Regions 1, 2, and 3 were also down YoY.

The typical size expanded 38.95 percent to 2,080 acres. As was the case last quarter, this was mostly due to a few large tracts in Far West Texas. As previously mentioned, total acres sold statewide increased YoY, but it was down from the annualized level of last quarter, and, once again, the total was dragged down by a steep decline in Northeast Texas. The same thing can be said about total dollar volume: the statewide increase was held back by a nearly 25 percent decline in Northeast Texas, though it was also down in South and Central Texas to a lesser degree.

Figure 1: Texas Rural Land Prices

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Figure 2. Texas Total Dollar Volume

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Region 1 : Panhandle–South Plains

Price in this market gained 3.92 percent YoY to $1,831 per acre, which is slightly lower than the price reported each of the last two quarters. The typical tract size was down less than an acre, essentially the same as a year ago at 386 acres. In percentage terms, total acres sold was down almost as much as price was up, which is why total dollar volume was essentially flat YoY. The annualized number of sales dropped 15.08 percent to 304 transactions (the lowest since 1Q2017), largely due to a much lower number for 1Q2025 than for 1Q2024.

Figure 3. Panhandle and South Plains Rural Land Prices

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Figure 4. Panhandle and South Plains Total Dollar Volume

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Region 2 : Far West Texas

Demand for land here remains weak. Sales activity was low again last quarter as annual sales volume was down 17.2 percent from an already low level. Additionally, price declined 18.04 percent YoY to $559 per acre. Total dollar volume increased by 58.63 percent YoY to $29.89 million. Size increased 45.32 percent to 15,635 acres, and total acres climbed 93.53 percent to 53,432 acres. Lack of a sufficient volume of transactions makes it difficult to accurately estimate trends in this region, and one or two large transactions can heavily influence results.

Figure 5. Far West Texas Rural Land Prices

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Figure 6. Far West Texas Total Dollar Volume

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Region 3 : West Texas

Median price in this Region rose to a new high for the second consecutive quarter, coming in at $2,662 per acre, up 12.89 percent YoY. This was the largest percentage increase among the seven Regions. Total dollar volume, at $198.87 million, grew by 19.28 percent, the highest rate of increase among the Regions, excluding Far West Texas. Tract size rose 12.48 percent YoY to 434 acres. Annualized sales volume slipped 4.18 percent to 459 sales. At 74,707 acres, total acreage pushed higher by 5.65 percent YoY.

Figure 7. West Texas Rural Land Prices

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Figure 8. West Texas Total Dollar Volume

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Region 4 : Northeast Texas

Reported sales volume continues to be low in this Region and was down 29.29 percent YoY. At 746 sales, the volume was a mere 27 percent of peak volume in 2021 and the lowest level since 2013. Price was up 1.69 percent YoY to $8,419 per acre. Despite the low volume, the five-year CAGR remains high at 11.52 percent, roughly the same as Region 7. Total dollar volume dropped 24.56 percent to $200.56 million. The size of the typical transaction increased to 122 acres, up 11.62 percent. Total acreage fell 25.81 percent, falling to 23,822 acres.

Figure 9. Northeast Texas Rural Land Prices

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Figure 10. Northeast Texas Total Dollar Volume

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Region 5 : Gulf Coast-Brazos Bottom

Price in this Region continued to show strength, up 11.04 percent to $10,289 per acre. This pushed the five-year CAGR up to 9.74 percent. Furthermore, this concurred with continued YoY growth in sales volumes and tract size. The annualized number of sales increased 2.26 percent YoY to 497. Typical size was 146 acres, 4.96 percent higher than a year ago. Total dollar volume increased 21.96 percent to $203.63 million as total acres sold gained 9.83 percent to 19,791 acres, remarkably similar to the annualized totals reported through 4Q2024.

Figure 11. Gulf Coast-Brazos Bottom Rural Land Prices

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Figure 12. Gulf Coast-Brazos Bottom Total Dollar Volume

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Region 6 : South Texas

South Texas market prices fell 5.73 percent YoY to $5,903 per acre as the real or deflated price declined 8.15 percent YoY. However, this price was higher than the prior quarter’s annualized price for the first time since 1Q2024. The five-year CAGR has slipped but is holding up at 8.07 percent. Total dollar volume declined 6.82 percent to $131.45 million as total acres slipped 1.15 percent to 22,268 acres. Typical size ticked up 2.49 percent to 284 acres. Meanwhile, the number of sales rose 0.68 percent YoY to 294, but quarter-only sales were below those of the same quarter last year.

Figure 13. South Texas Rural Land Prices

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Figure 14. South Texas Total Dollar Volume

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Region 7 : Austin–Waco–Hill Country

The median price was up 1.32 percent YoY to $7,291 per acre. However, this is 1.88 percent below the peak price of $7,431 per acre set in 2Q2024. Price has held in the $7,100-$7,450 range since the end of 2022, and the five-year CAGR came in at 11.58 percent. However, the real or deflated price per acre fell 1.2 percent YoY. Sales rose a mere 1.07 percent YoY to 947. Total dollar volume slid 4.94 percent to $326.55 million. Total acres sold declined 6.18 percent YoY to 44,789 acres. Typical size was up 2.48 percent to 208 acres. All things considered, the market for rural land in this Region seems to be moving sideways, basically flat or in a holding pattern.

Figure 15. Austin-Waco-Hill Country Rural Land Prices

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Figure 16. Austin-Waco-Hill Country Total Dollar Volume

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center

Summary and Outlook

Prices were up statewide and in five of seven Regions. However, total sales and total acres sold were down in four Regions. The standouts were Regions 3 and 5 (West and Gulf Coast–Brazos Bottom) with double-digit price increases and at least modest growth in acres sold. Overall, the YoY comparisons are modestly positive, but there are unique contrasts and obvious weak spots within most Regions. These price and volume dynamics indicate markets that are still unsettled primarily due to continued weak demand. Statewide volumes of sales and acres sold are still well below pre-pandemic (2019) levels.

Interest rates are also less attractive than 2019-21 levels. This is likely the single largest contributor to the market slowdown. There are other issues that dampened affordability, such as high prices and savings diminished by inflation over the past few years. Additionally, market participants still expect meaningful changes in federal economic policies (deregulation, tariffs, taxation, and government spending). However, the degree and timing of these policies and their impacts remain uncertain. General optimism toward the long-term benefits of owning rural land does not relieve the desire among many would-be market participants to watch from the sidelines in the near term.

Our latest Texas rural land forecast predicts statewide price will decline slightly over the next several quarters. Specifically, it indicates statewide price will decline 1 percent through 4Q2025 and 3 to 4 percent over the next two years. Regarding quantity of acres sold, the model indicates a decline of approximately 3 percent through year end followed by a gradual reversion in 2026, back to current level by 3Q2026, and continued gradual rise in total acres sold in 2027. This is TRERC’s baseline forecast, which assumes economic indicators used in the model follow a steady trend without major disruptions, based on Moody’s Analytics forecast. Naturally, as with any forecast, the degree of confidence and range of possibilities widens along the timeline. Results are subject to change, especially as key inputs such as Texas total personal income, interest rates, and oil prices may change unexpectedly.