Texas Housing Insight | January 2026

This report reflects November 2025 MLS data. Numbers have been revised from their initial publication based on more complete data.

Texas home sales fell sharply in November 2025, extending the subdued momentum observed in October. The weaker-than-expected November sales partly reflect a difficult comparison with the unusually strong rebound in late 2024, when sharply lower interest rates temporarily drew out demand and boosted sales. National home sales showed a similar pattern, posting a notable decline in November.

Year to date (YTD), sales growth remains positive and is on track to produce a modest year-end gain of roughly 1 to 2 percent. Pending home sales (a forward-looking indicator) point to an uptick for December. The decline in mortgage rates through November and December, in anticipation of the Federal Reserve’s third consecutive 25-basis-point rate cut on Dec. 18, 2025, was expected to draw additional buyers back into the market to close out the year.

New listing activity slowed markedly through November, reflecting both a larger-than-normal seasonal downturn and the impact of already elevated inventory levels that continue to exert pricing pressure on sellers. Overall inventory remains high and is well above what was typical before the pandemic. Meanwhile, as the housing market continues to adjust to persistent affordability constraints on one side and elevated inventory levels on the other, home prices are continually softening across major Texas metros.

Mortgage rates, already showing early signs of easing, are expected to decline further in 2026 as the administration proposes measures for Government Sponsored Enterprises to increase liquidity in the mortgage market. At the same time, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing and continues support of the Treasury market are likely to exert additional downward pressure on interest rates. The path of mortgage rates will remain the dominant factor shaping buyer demand, seller participation, and inventory dynamics to the overall market transition in 2026.

November Sales Post a Large Decline, While YTD Growth Remains Positive

Notes: The sales numbers reflect actual sales, not the seasonally adjusted annual rate.
Source: Texas REALTORS and National Association of REALTORS data (accessed at Haver Analytics)

• November sales declined 8 percent from a year ago. The weak year-over-year (YoY) number was partly attributable to the unusually strong market rebound in later 2024, when sharply lower interest rates temporarily boosted demand. Even so, YTD sales remained at 0.8 percent above last year’s level.

• November’s median home prices held steady at $333,000 month-over-month (MoM), slightly below last year’s level of $333,000.

• Similarly, seasonally unadjusted national home sales fell 6.3 percent. Regionally, sales fell 9.5 percent in the Northeast, 6.5 percent in the Midwest, 5 percent in the South, and 7 percent in the West.

• The national median home price of existing single-family homes was $410,000, a modest increase from $404,400 a year earlier.

Monthly Market Snapshot: November Sales and Inventory Trends

Notes: The turnover rate is calculated as pending sales divided by inventory, where inventory is the average of month-beginning and month-end inventory
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS data

• In November, homes sold averaged 72 days on the market, corresponding to an inventory turnover rate of 16.4 percent—down from 18.6 percent a year earlier and 20.7 percent in 2023. 

• Sellers continued to offer larger price concessions amid elevated inventory pressure. In November, the median price cut was $18,740, about a 5 percent reduction from the original asking price, resulting in a sale-to-list ratio of 0.95.

• As of November, active inventory is at a 5.2-month supply, rising from 4.5 months a year earlier. In Texas, a three- to four-month supply is generally considered indicative of a more stable and balanced market. 
  
• Average days-on-market (DOM) for unsold inventory climbed to 103 days, having sat on the market about a month longer than sold homes, which averaged 72 days.

New Listing Activity Pulled Back Sharply, and Overall Inventory Remained Elevated

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project, Texas REALTORS data

• November recorded a sharp pullback in new listing activity, down nearly 1 percent YoY. Seasonally, the month also posted the steepest MoM decline for a November.

• Even without December data, new listing activity in 2025 already reached a record 565,000, surpassing 2024’s total of 544,000.

• Even with a sharp decline expected in December, 2025 will still mark the highest annual level of seller activity since 2011.

• Amid a sharp pullback in new listing activity, total active inventory declined 4.9 percent since October but remains elevated at 16.2 percent above the 2024 level.

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS data

• Seller pricing pressure continued to intensify in November, with median price cuts rising to $18,740—a 25 percent increase from a year earlier. 

• The $250k-$350k segment experienced the sharpest adjustment, with median price cuts up 49 percent, climbing from $10,000 in November 2024 to $14,900 in November 2025. 

• The $800k and above segment also saw heightened pricing pressure, with median price cuts rising 35 percent—from $55,000 in November 2024 to $74,000 in November 2025. 

• Likewise, in the entry level segment, median price cuts reached $13,000, up 30 percent from $10,000 a year earlier. 

Texas Home Price Declines Persist

Note: The YoY change in the price index is calculated as a three-month moving average.
Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project, Texas REALTORS data

• The pace of price softening shows little indication of easing. Statewide, YoY home prices declined 0.6 percent, a slight uptick from the 0.5 percent declines recorded in September and October.  

• The pricing pressure appeared to have intensified the most in San Antonio, where home prices declined 1.8 percent YoY, a notable uptick from 1 percent in September and October. 

• Home prices in Austin continue to trend downward, averaging 2.5 percent YoY in October and November. The city’s median sales price in November was $425,000, down from $431,000 recorded a year ago and from $465,000 in November 2022.

• Notably, price declines in the DFW market have been largely concentrated in the Dallas-Plano-Irving metropolitan division, where YoY prices declined 1.4 percent in November. In contrast, prices in the more affordable Fort Worth-Arlington Grapevine area remained relatively stable through November.  

• Prices in the Houston area continue to face downward pressure from elevated inventory levels, though the pace of declines appeared to moderate. In November, prices fell 0.5 percent YoY, compared with declines of 0.6 percent in October and 0.7 percent in September.

Local Housing Market Indicators 

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS data

Source: Texas Real Estate Research Center analysis of Data Relevance Project and Texas REALTORS data

Notes: Permit value is builder estimated construction costs of the residential structure, not including land acquisition costs.
Source: Survey of New Construction of U.S. Census Bureau