Housing manufacturers see seasonal slowdown, eye spring 2026 rebound
COLLEGE STATION – The November 2025 Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) revealed one of the widest gaps on record between current operating conditions and forward-looking expectations. Manufacturers reported a clear slowdown in present activity reflected in declining production levels, shrinking backlogs, and weaker employment indicators. Taking these shifts together, respondents conveyed a more challenging operating environment in November with worsening general business activity.
Simultaneously, the survey expressed strong confidence in a rebound by mid-2026. This split underscores a sector navigating short-term headwinds while maintaining a firm belief that the downturn is cyclical rather than structural.
Current conditions have deteriorated meaningfully in the latter half of 2025. Production and sales measures remain in deeply negative territory along with backlogs, signaling a softer order pipeline heading into winter.
“The winter months are seasonally slower for new manufactured home orders, and production facilities tend to be working through their backlogs at this point in the calendar,” said Rob Ripperda, vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA). “We didn’t see the widespread increases in backlogs during the late spring and early summer months of 2025 that manufacturers had reported in the previous two years. Without that built up order set to pull from they have been slowing output since August to operate until the spring 2026 orders start coming in.”
Price dynamics are reinforcing a cooling narrative with manufacturers continuing to report stuff current prices for finished homes, a reflection of reduced demand. Expectations for selling prices and input costs moving forward remain positive, though more moderate than last month’s survey results, suggesting a return to steadier operating margins.
“U.S. lumber prices have stabilized in recent months, hovering in the mid-$500s per thousand board feet,” said Harold Hunt, Ph.D., research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center (TRERC) at Texas A&M University. “However, the U.S. continues to rely heavily on Canadian softwood lumber where tariffs already exceed 25 to 35 percent plus a new 10 percent national-security tariff imposed this fall. The result may be greater price volatility ahead.”
Even as manufacturers acknowledge current weakness, their expectations for the first half of 2026 improved dramatically. Future index values for sales, backlog, and overall business conditions have surged in recent months. Several variables registered some of the strongest forward readings in the survey’s history.
Respondents anticipate a meaningful pickup in demand by late spring, accompanied by longer workweeks, higher staffing levels, and a healthier volume of out-of-state shipments.
The increased separation between present contraction and future strength highlights how manufacturers are interpreting the current environment. The data suggest they see today’s cooling as a temporary pause rather than a fundamental shift in the market. Regulatory burdens remained elevated in the near term. However, respondents expect uncertainty to ease and business conditions to materially improve within six months.
Taken together, the November results point to a sector caught in a short-run slowdown while firmly looking toward recovery. If these expectations hold, Texas manufactured housing producers appear ready to re-accelerate activity by mid-2026. This optimism is supported by stabilizing input costs and renewed demand across both in-state and out-of-state markets.
The TMHS monthly sentiment survey gauges current conditions and expectations surrounding Texas’ manufactured housing industry. All TMHA members with manufacturing facilities in the state are invited to participate, and the survey panel represents 94 percent of HUD-code homes produced in Texas. The survey was created by TRERC, who administers it and calculates the responses.
