Land | Spring 2025

Editor’s note: The data in this article were current at the time of author’s submission on March 4, 2025

Texas Rural Land Market Overview

The story of the 2024 Texas rural land market is one of settling and leveling. While the market has stabilized compared to the wild swings from 2021 to 2023, this is likely a market in transition regarding price and volume. The rate of annualized statewide price growth continued to decline, as it was up a meager 1.9 percent year-over-year (YoY) through year-end 2024 (see Table 1). The statewide five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 4Q2024 landed at 9.74 percent. This is still well above the long-term rate, but down from 10.85 percent a year ago. The real (deflated) price per acre turned negative for the first time since 2011, down 0.6 percent YoY.

Annual sales volume slipped 2.9 percent YoY. The percentage drop in the fourth-quarter-only sales volume was 13 percent, more than four times the annualized rate of decline. This was likely influenced by a wait-and-see approach due to the election cycle. The continued cooldown in sales is evident, however, the annual rate of decline has eased, and the total acres sold increased 12.2 percent YoY.

While rates of change moderated compared to a year ago, market activity is still below 2019 levels as annualized total sales continued to decline, albeit at a lower rate, down 3 percent YoY. However, unlike 2022 and the first half of 2023, the number of acres sold rose statewide and in five of the seven Regions. Additionally, for the first time in over two years, the statewide annualized number of acres sold and total dollar volume increased YoY.

Regional Market Dynamics

Unlike what we saw at the end of 3Q2024, through the fourth quarter, YoY prices rose in six of the seven Regions. Price per acre was up by more than double the statewide rate in Regions 1 through 5 and up about 1 percent in Region 7. South Texas (Region 6) was the one exception, with median price down 5.8 percent YoY.

As is clear in Table 2, each Region presents a unique mix of market dynamics. Each Region has at least one positive metric in YoY change. It was an especially good year for Regions 3 and 5, where price, sales, and acres were up more than 4 percent. Region 6 experienced an increase in the number of sales though the total acres sold were down, as sales of smaller tracts lead the market. However, the reported median price per acre in Region 6 slipped nearly 6 percent.

These variations in regional price and volume dynamics indicate markets that are in some manner of transition through year end. Keep in mind that while most 2024 metrics were an improvement over 2023, the volumes of sales and acres sold are still depressed (below pre-pandemic levels and on par with 2012 13 levels).

Overview and Outlook 

Prices were up statewide and in six of the seven Regions. Additionally, volume (in acres sold) was up for the state as a whole and in five Regions. However, the statewide rate of price increase continued its decent from the massive gains seen in 2021 and 2022.

Premium tracts are still selling at higher prices while less attractive tracts are sitting on the market longer. Recent evidence suggests more sellers are reducing asking prices more in line with the recent lower levels of price growth. This may lead to improvement in sales activity.

As illustrated in the figure below, the annualized change in sales volume has rebounded significantly over the last year and may be on the way to slight YoY growth this year.

The Texas Real Estate Research Center’s 2025 forecast still expects small declines in statewide price and a slight increase in the volume of acres sold this year. Anecdotal evidence suggests this reflects reality in the field, as listings and showings are reportedly on the rise, though it may take another quarter or two before the statewide number of sales picks up YoY.

For more insights, read our in-depth technical report.

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Lynn D. Krebs, Ph.D. ([email protected]) is a research economist with the Texas Real Estate Research Center.