Texas Real Estate Research Center releases 2024 housing, commercial, land market projections

COLLEGE STATION, Tex. (Texas Real Estate Research Center) – Economists​​​​​ at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M (TRERC) released their 2024 outlook for real estate in the housing, commercial, and land s​​ectors of the Texas economy. The comprehensive analysis of market behaviors draws attention to the most influential, big picture trends that impact real estate asset markets in Texas.

“Given the powerful economic influence of the state’s real estate assets, we focused our new forecast on real estate decision makers who shape our economy and impact more than 30 million Texans,” said TRERC Research Director Daniel Oney, Ph.D. “Texas is a real estate trendsetter in the U.S. when it comes to residential, commercial, and land markets, so we thoughtfully analyzed more data than usual this year to help us determine if the state’s statistics from the previous year could be sustainable in 2024.”

According to Pamela Canon, TRERC Executive Director, the reformatted forecast delivers invaluable insights into the residential, commercial, and land markets of Texas, providing an economic roadmap for navigating the state’s vibrant real estate landscape. 

“Our consensus at the Center was to deliver a new and improved economic outlook for the real estate stakeholders in every asset market in 2024,” Canon said. “We wanted to connect the dots between data and risks for better real estate intelligence by offering relevant and reliable information to guide decision makers across the state.”

Texas has consistently set the pace for real estate trends, with DFW, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio dominating the U.S. market in 2023. As the state’s influence continues to shape the nation, the 2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast delves into the sustainability of this trend. 

Notable TRERC projections for 2024:  

Residential Market  

• Single-family housing deliveries will increase with construction matching pre-COVID levels. 
• Average single-family home prices expected to remain flat or dip slightly, staying near $340,000.  
• Multifamily effective rent growth to strengthen, averaging 2.5 percent for the year.  

Commercial Market

• New office space deliveries to surpass 2023 levels, while net absorption turns negative.  
• Retail rents expected to end 2024 slightly above December 2023 levels, with up to 2 percent growth statewide.  

Industrial Market

• Industrial deliveries remain strong, with a potential 1.5 to 3 percent increase in statewide inventory.  
• Statewide industrial rents to continue increasing but at a slower pace than in 2023.  

Land Market

Rural land sales volumes to decline in 2024, with median land prices reaching a near-term peak and then declining.  

Legal Outlook

Legislative changes could quickly impact zoning, property taxes, plat approval, and regulations, significantly influencing real estate markets across Texas. 

"The 2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast is not just a prediction,” Oney emphasized. “It’s a thoughtful, consensus-based economic tool for empowerment. It equips real estate decision makers with the knowledge needed to navigate the complexities of the Texas real estate market." 

Key features of the 2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast:  

Informed Decision-Making: The forecast aims to empower real estate decision-makers, including financiers, developers, builders, homebuyers, sellers, business occupiers, and transaction facilitators, with comprehensive and actionable information. 

Asset-Specific Projections: Covering residential housing, commercial spaces, and rural land, the forecast provides detailed projections for each asset category, offering a holistic view of the real estate landscape.  

Macro Drivers and Risk Projections: By connecting macro drivers with risk projections, the forecast enables contingency planning across the state, emphasizing the principles of audience, assets, comparison, method, scenarios, evaluation, and vetting.  

Certainty Indicators: Through color-coded signals, the forecast indicates the level of certainty associated with each asset, helping stakeholders assess risks and make informed decisions. Green signifies low risk, yellow indicates intermediate risk, and red denotes significant risk.  

Key Macro Drivers: Identified market behaviors and macro drivers, including economic output, jobs, income, spending, population, interest rates, inflation, energy prices, and legal/geopolitical factors, form the foundation of TRERC’s asset forecasts for 2024. 

The entire 2024 Texas Real Estate Forecast is online here for comprehensive content and insights, including data tables from major Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas. For additional information and archived real estate reports, visit www.recenter.tamu.edu​. ​