Texas Housing Affordability Outlook

Purchase Affordability

Affordability continued to decline in 4Q2022 amid higher mortgage interest rates and still-elevated home prices. Although home price appreciation declined substantially from record highs observed in the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, year-over-year (YOY) growth in both the median and first-quartile sales price remained positive at 1.6 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively (Figure 1 and Table 1).¹ The significant YOY increase in family income followed years of modest rises (Table 2). While the rise in median family income (13.6 percent) outpaced the growth in median home price, the substantial uptick in mortgage rates essentially offset the effect of higher median family income.

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Rates averaged 6.66 percent in 4Q2022, up considerably from 2Q2022 and 3Q2022, which averaged 5.27 and 5.62 percent, respectively (Figure 2). All other things being equal, lower (higher) mortgage interest rates translate into lower (higher) monthly mortgage payments and ease (diminish) purchase affordability. The Federal Reserve is widely anticipated to raise the federal funds rate an additional 75 basis points in 2023 to reduce inflationary pressures. Expectations dictate that mortgage rates will continue decreasing slightly before settling in the 5 percent range. For more information on the effect of mortgage interest rates on purchase affordability, see “​How Higher Interest Rates Affect Homebuying.”

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 ¹ The first quartile reflects the lowest-priced 25 percent of homes sold in a particular geography. The first-quartile sales price represents the highest home price among those lowest-priced 25 percent of homes sold. If the price of the lowest 25 percent of homes sold ranges from $100,000 to $150,000, then the first-quartile sales price would be $150,000.

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Previous reports:

2022: 1Q2022​, 2Q2022​, 3Q2022​

2021: 4Q2021