Texas Domestic Migration: County Gains and Declines

Each year, Texas sees an influx of domestic migration from various states. Many of these newcomers settle in different parts of the state, primarily in the more populous counties. 

Within-state migration can be just as significant, but it tends to receive less attention than state-to-state migration.  

Movement between Texas counties represents a significant portion of overall relocations, but even more substantial are the moves occurring within the same county. As a result, the demographic composition of a county is continually changing. Using the IRS dataset from 2016-22, we will look at both different-state and same-state (county-to-county) migration for Texas’ four largest counties: Harris, Dallas, Bexar, and Travis.  

Out-of-state migration to Texas grew 7 to 9 percent for these four counties from 2020 to 2021 (Figure 1). However, in 2022, growth decreased for both Bexar and Travis Counties while Harris and Dallas Counties continued to see significant growth.   

Meanwhile, in-state (county-to-county) moves almost always accounted for at least 50 percent of all moves to these counties each year (Figure 2). Harris County had the highest volume of both in-state and out-of-state migration inflows. 

Analyzing the net inflow of movers from both out of state and from within the state reveals an interesting pattern (Figure 3). Even when accounting for Texans relocating to other states, the net inflow (move-ins to these counties from another state minus move-outs from these counties to another state) remains positive, ranging from 9K to 22K out-of-state moves to these counties in the years following 2020. As expected, in-state migration numbers are substantially higher than those for out-of-state moves.  

Additionally, the number of people moving out of a county surpasses those moving in, leading to a net negative inflow (moves in from other Texas counties minus moves out of the county). There are more residents in these counties going to other Texas counties than there are residents coming to them. Notably, Harris and Dallas Counties have the highest number of residents moving to other Texas counties, a trend observed consistently from 2016 to 2022.

The average income of out-of-state movers is higher than that of in-state movers. However, there is a significant variation in income levels, with Travis and Dallas Counties attracting movers with notably higher incomes. The difference between average out-of-state income and average in-state income is always positive in all years and in all counties except Bexar (Figure 4). 

Travis and Dallas Counties have a higher concentration of movers in high-paying industries like technology, finance, and healthcare. These movers may possess higher education levels, more specialized skills, and higher incomes and are moving to take advantage of job opportunities and cost-of-living advantages in Texas. Some are relocating from high-income areas on the East and West Coasts, and the higher salaries may be skewing the average income upward for Travis and Dallas Counties.