Texas housing manufacturers’ six-month projections include significant production, sales increases

COLLEGE STATION – The October Texas Manufactured Housing Survey (TMHS) revealed a much more positive outlook across the board, with significant increases in production and sales expectations six months out. General business activity is also expected to improve, while outlook uncertainty should decrease after the presidential election dust has settled.

Part of the expectations for stronger sales may be a result of events that have occurred outside Texas. Respondents are expecting a significant increase in the volume of out-of-state shipments in the months ahead, a reversal from last month’s survey.

“Manufacturers were feeling good coming into their quarterly earnings releases and knew that the question of who would win the presidential election was soon to be decided,” said Rob Ripperda vice president of operations for the Texas Manufactured Housing Association (TMHA). “Some of the recent softness in retail orders has been attributed to consumers holding off on home purchasing until they knew the outcome of the election, and that uncertainty has now been removed with Donald Trump re-elected as president in 2025. I think factories are expecting consumers inside the state and outside the state to increase home orders in 2025.”

Average employee workweek and labor supply have remained subdued for the past several months. However, that may be about to change. TMHS respondents are signaling that demand for new employees should be much stronger in the months ahead, driven by the more optimistic sales expectations. As a result, labor costs and backlogs are also expected to increase.

Along with increased labor costs, respondents are expecting prices paid for raw materials to move higher as well. The survey indicated a slight increase in expectations for supply-chain disruptions, which could be a contributing factor.

“Although a major U.S. dock strike was temporarily avoided in October, the massive amount of rebuilding that will be required in the Southeast U.S. due to recent hurricanes could be a factor in the expected material cost increase,” said Harold Hunt, Ph.D., research economist at the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University (TRERC). “However, when asked specifically if they expected the hurricanes to have an impact on future material prices, respondents’ views were surprisingly mixed.”

Prices received for finished homes are expected to spike six months out, as manufacturers should be expected to pass along a portion of any material and labor cost increases.

This monthly sentiment survey gauges current conditions and expectations surrounding Texas’ manufactured housing industry. All members of the TMHA with manufacturing facilities in the state are invited to participate, and the survey panel represents 89 percent of HUD-code homes produced in Texas. The survey was created by TRERC, who administers it and calculates the responses.