Are Blind Boxes Just Toys?
As anyone who’s ever bought a box of Cracker Jack or a pack of baseball cards will tell you, the concept behind blind boxes is hardly new. But a recent trend in toys sheds more light on consumer behavior.
During the first quarter of this year, toy sales among shoppers aged 18 and older jumped 12 percent from the previous year. Adult consumers spent $1.8 billion on toys in just that quarter, making them the largest spending cohort across all age groups, according to Circana’s checkout data analysis. Among all the industries Circana tracks, the toy category was the fastest-growing segment in early 2025, driven in part by collectible sports trading cards and Pokémon.
What does that tell us? One answer could be that people are finding ways to cope with rising economic pressures. When big milestones like buying a home feel out of reach, many turn to smaller, more affordable pleasures. As behavioral scientist Professor Ben Voyer of the London School of Economics noted in a recent article, toys offer comfort, nostalgia, and a sense of escape—things people crave during uncertain times. And one of the fastest-growing examples of that trend? Blind boxes.
If you’ve spent time on TikTok or Instagram lately, you’ve probably come across videos of people opening mystery toys—cheering when they get the one they want or groaning when they don’t. These are blind boxes—sealed packages where you don’t know which character or item you’re getting until you open it. It’s a bit like a toy-themed lottery. And to be honest, I get the appeal—I’m a fan too.
The current leader in this space is Pop Mart, a Chinese company founded in 2010. Its collectible toys often feature characters built around specific themes or “IP universes,” with different expressions, outfits, or accessories that make each one unique. Popular IPs include Labubu and Crybaby. The company has exploded in popularity. In fact, Pop Mart’s market value is now higher than the combined value of U.S. toy giants Hasbro (known for Monopoly and Transformers) and Mattel (Barbie, Fisher-Price, Thomas the Tank Engine).
So, why is this toy trend suddenly everywhere? Is it really just about the thrill of surprise? I started to wonder what keeps me coming back.
Blind boxes tap into something much deeper happening in today’s digital and social world. Especially during the pandemic, when people couldn’t hang out in person, blind boxes became a fun, shareable experience. Gen Z, in particular, embraced them—unboxing videos, collection posts, and lucky pulls filled with social media feeds. These toys became a kind of social currency. Their prices typically range from $15–$45 for standard editions, with special collaborations reaching $200–$300. They’re affordable enough to be a self-gift, but expensive enough to feel exclusive—clearly aimed beyond just children.
But here’s the twist: beneath the cute packaging lies something a little more complicated.
Psychologists talk about intermittent reinforcement, a fancy term for how our brains respond to unpredictable rewards. It’s the same logic slot machines use. Sometimes you win, sometimes you don’t, and that randomness keeps you coming back. Pop Mart’s own numbers show that nearly half their customers spend over 500 renminbi (over $70) a year, and 70 percent buy three or more times just to get the figure they want. That pattern isn’t so different from gambling.
From an economist’s perspective, addiction means any behavior that makes you more likely to repeat it in the future. And blind boxes, for many people, do just that. Yet, unlike gambling, blind boxes remain unregulated in most countries. And that’s a bit worrying when you consider how popular they are with younger buyers. A research study has shown that early exposure to gambling-like activities may heighten the risk of future behavioral addictions, including substance abuse. This highlights the need for more research on the blind box market, particularly to examine whether repeated exposure increases the risk of developing addictive tendencies over time.
So, are we really collecting toys—or chasing the thrill of the unknown?
Like many trends, the blind box craze is a mix of clever design, cultural timing, and emotional psychology. It may be fun, and even harmless in moderation. But as consumers, it’s worth asking ourselves: do we love the characters, or do we love the chase?
Views expressed on The 338 are those of the authors and do not imply endorsement by the Texas Real Estate Research Center, Division of Research, or Texas A&M University.
