2019 Revision of 2018 Employment Data

The Real Estate Center uses employment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Texas Workforce Commission (TWC) for economic analysis and forecasting of the Texas labor markets. The BLS and the TWC revise data in the first three months of each year to improve the accuracy and quality of job datasets. These revisions can significantly affect the trajectories of levels and job growth rates in U.S. and Texas industries, as well as in Texas Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), so it’s important to review and monitor the times series of employment data before and after the revisions.

Key findings from the 2018 revisions include:

• The information industry had the biggest percent increase in jobs after the revision, at 3.15 percent. Mining and logging dropped the most, by -3.34 percent.
• Most MSAs and industries saw the average number of jobs in 2018 drop after the revision.
• Midland and Odessa had the biggest percent increases in average number of jobs following the revision, at 6.28 and 6.22 percent, respectively.

Texas Total Nonfarm Employment, Pre-revision and Post-revision

Texas total nonfarm jobs before and after 2018 revisions are shown in Table 1, Panel A. Texas total nonfarm employment, which gives a “big picture” of the state’s aggregate labor market, was revised down for all months of 2018. The gap between pre- and post-employment data widened from January to December 2018 (Figure 1.1). The average annual level of Texas total nonfarm jobs was revised down by 72,670 from a pre-revision of 12,576,750 to a post-revision of 12,504,080, or -0.58 percent. This was a significant change in the level of Texas nonfarm employment in 2018.

Employment Revision by Industry

Panel B of Table 1 presents the state’s industries and the government sector ranked by the percentage of jobs revised up (B1) and down (B2) in 2018. In terms of the percentage of revised jobs, the information industry ranked first in upward revision by 3.15 percent, followed by the government sector (0.45 percent), manufacturing (0.39 percent), and financial activities (0.17 percent).

Regarding the average annual number of jobs, the state’s government sector had the largest upward revision by 8,790, followed by the information industry (6,230 jobs), manufacturing (3,400), and financial activities (1,300). Job numbers were revised up for all months in 2018 in the information industry and the government sector (Figures 1.2 and 1.3). Manufacturing jobs were revised up in the first three months of 2018, revised down in April and May, and revised up thereafter (Figure 1.4). The financial activities industry was revised upward before September 2018 and downward in the last four months of 2018 (Figure 1.5).

Job numbers were revised down for eight Texas industries (Panel B2 of Table 1 and Figures 1.6 to 1.13). Education and health services had the smallest downward revision in percentage of jobs (-0.33 percent), followed by transportation, warehousing, and utilities (-0.37 percent); professional and business services (-0.71 percent); other services (-0.77 percent); leisure and hospitality (-0.87 percent); trade (-1.44 percent); construction (-2.68 percent); and mining and logging (-3.34 percent).

In terms of the average annual number of jobs, the state’s trade had the largest downward revision (-28,180 jobs), followed by construction (-20,300), professional and business services
(-12,370), leisure and hospitality (-11,910), mining and logging (-8,520), education and health services (-5,640), other services (-3,360), and transportation, warehousing, utilities (-2,090).

Employment Revision by Metropolitan Areas

Job numbers were revised up in 14 MSAs (Panel A of Table 2 and Figures 2.1 to 2.14) while 12 were revised down (Panel B of Table 2 and Figure 2.15 to 2.26). Midland ranked first in percentage upward revision (6.28 percent) followed by Odessa (6.22 percent), Victoria (3.49 percent), Beaumont-Port Arthur (1.45 percent), McAllen-Edinburg-Mission (0.61 percent), Wichita Falls (0.47 percent), Laredo (0.42 percent), San Angelo (0.38 percent), Corpus Christi (0.37 percent), Longview (0.36 percent), Fort Worth-Arlington (0.34 percent), San Antonio (0.09 percent), Abilene (0.09 percent), and Austin (0.06 percent).

In average annual number of jobs, Midland had the largest upward revision (6,400 jobs), followed by Odessa (4,720), Fort Worth-Arlington (3,620), Beaumont-Port Arthur (2,370), McAllen-Edinburg-Mission (1,590), Victoria (1,410), San Antonio (920), Corpus Christi (720), Austin (640), Laredo (440), Longview (350), Wichita Falls (280), San Angelo (190), and Abilene (60).

In percentage of jobs revised down, El Paso had the smallest downward revision (-0.13 percent) followed by College Station-Bryan (-0.41 percent), Sherman-Denison (-0.56 percent), Waco (-0.61 percent), Brownsville-Harlingen (-0.89 percent), Dallas-Plano-Irving (-0.95), Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land (-1.03 percent), Amarillo (-1.34 percent), Texarkana (-1.34 percent), Tyler (-1.51 percent), Lubbock (-1.74 percent), and Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood (-1.8 percent).

In average annual number of jobs, Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land had the largest number of revised down jobs (-31,950 jobs), followed by Dallas-Plano-Irving (-25,190), Lubbock (-2,630), Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood (-2,630), Amarillo (-1,630), Tyler (-1,620), Brownsville-Harlingen (-1,270), Texarkana (-810), Waco (-750), College Station-Bryan (-490), El Paso (-420), and Sherman-Denison (-270).